CARNERGY: infrastructure readiness package for the Antigua and Barbuda Port Authority (CHOGM 2026)

Where it stands: late pre-feasibility, ready to raise preparation funding

The programme sits at stage 2 of the six-stage project cycle that multilateral banks and the Global Infrastructure Hub use (identification, pre-feasibility, feasibility and ESIA, structuring, transaction, financial close). Identification is done and pre-feasibility is largely done. The package is built to raise preparation funding and letters of interest, which carry it into feasibility.

What the pre-feasibility work covered

1. Market and demand study: LNG bunkering and ISO-tank supply, feeder shipping loops, regional cold-hub tonnage, vehicle storage and cruise shore-power demand.
2. Capex costing at 2026 prices, climate-proofed with 15–25% contingency: about US$637M for Crabbs and US$505M for St John’s (US$1.14bn central case, range US$0.67–1.95bn). This is a concept-screening estimate, the normal level at pre-feasibility. It also includes a costed list of the studies and a 1 MW shore-power pilot needed to reach feasibility.
3. Hub market and financial model: revenue, payback, finance stack and royalty options, with a source register of 154 validated links.
4. Five Case Business Case (strategic, economic, commercial, financial, management).
5. Shore-power (OPS) costing study for the St John’s cruise berths.
6. Structuring: concession types, a build-operate-transfer cold hub, and the legal route to bonded status checked against the Customs Act 2013, the SEZ Act 2015 and the Free Trade and Processing Zones Act.
7. De-risking: the guarantee landscape (MIGA, the World Bank Group Guarantee Platform, CDB), a proposed Caribbean non-sovereign guarantee platform and a blended finance stack, with no sovereign borrowing.
8. Impact: a modelled cost-of-living link, where a 10% cut in port costs saves about US$41M and lowers living costs by about 1.5% (illustrative central case).
9. Readiness assessment by component, and a Path to Bankability that names the surveys, engineering, environmental and social assessment and offtake commitments needed before financial close.

What was delivered (12 items)

Investor deck (47 slides with speaker notes); Investment Memo (15 pp) and Executive Summary (5 pp); Cabinet Submission; Five Case Business Case; shore-power costing study; financial model; Path to Bankability; speaking notes for Cabinet and for the forum; slide guide.

Readiness by component

How

A 140–222 consultant-day assignment delivered in about 40 days (earlier desk research plus a five-day build, 24–28 Oct 2026) using AI-assisted methods, with Valerie directing, reviewing and validating every output. Evidence is adviser-prepared desk research at pre-feasibility standard; lenders will expect independent verification before financial close.

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